This article first appeared on the
Otoom Facebook and LinkedIn page on 11 January 2018. Its real home is
here.
North and South Korea are holding
talks (yet again, but still). May I suggest a possible situation in, say, 10
years' time.
The two Koreas are united, the
(previous) North benefiting from the economic strength of the (previous) South,
the South benefiting from the nuclear capability of the North. China benefits
from a border nation that does not invite ongoing opprobrium from the rest of
the world which so often disturbs its own plans. An ever more dissolute US will
be largely on the side lines as far as Asia, represented by its major economic
and political powers, is concerned. The EU, stronger than ever, is in a
position to take advantage of the increasing might of Asia, no longer having to
deal with a relatively distant Britain since that nation has now left the Union
and has reverted to its traditional alignment with the US.
An educated guess perhaps, but
educated nevertheless. Consider the dynamics as they exist.
The Korean War has never been
resolved, and through all this time the North saw itself on the defensive but
proved to itself the capacity to overcome so many difficulties even if that
meant resorting to circumvention tactics. Those difficulties it can do without.
The South opened itself to the world and competed successfully, partly
supported by the US but essentially because they could. Despite all that, North
and South are one people hampered by existing treaties and pacts. Yet blood is
thicker than ink; in Asia that matters. China is forging ahead with its One
Road policy, and unfettered economies can only be an advantage. All the while
the US has demonstrated its lack of understanding during its participation in
so many conflicts (it failed in Vietnam, it made matters arguably worse in the
Middle East, and for 70 years its role in the Koreas didn't bring that conflict
to a solution either). Britain's secession from the EU diminishes its own
status, but enhances that of the EU due to the relocation of so many economic
entities to the continent. And in any case, Britain was never really on the
same page as continental Europe, while its alignment with the US entails for it
the consequences of anything the US invites for itself.
All this can be identified. The
only question is, do Asian leaders draw such conclusions and if so, what
exactly is happening behind the scenes already?
